Thursday, January 05, 2006

EKOS Chamber

I try to avoid blogging about opinion poll results these days because, this being a partisan blog on a partisan blogroll, I'd end up writing the same story as everyone else: good polls mean good polling technique, bad polls means bad polling technique by Liberal-friendly pollsters.

Remember all the bitching at the beginning of the campaign about SES polls when we were 15 points down? We were all prepared to lynch Nik Nanos then, and when SES gave us a 3-point lead, they became polling champions.

We all think Frank Graves and EKOS are deep in the tank for the Grits, so no doubt there will be glee when this poll makes its way round:

The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Star and La Presse, found that 36.2 per cent of decided voters say they will support the Conservatives, while 30.4 per cent favoured the Liberals.

The NDP is supported by 17.9 per cent of voters, while the Bloc is at 10.4 per cent nationally and the Green party is at 4.7 per cent.


Results for Ontario and Quebec are eye-catching. In Ontario, where the Liberals have always enjoyed a big lead, a real dogfight has now emerged, with the Liberals at 38.5 per cent support and the Tories at 35.3.

In Quebec, where Harper has spent an unusual amount of time, the two parties are in almost a dead heat with the Liberals at 21.9 per cent and the Conservatives at 20.2. The Bloc Québécois is well ahead at 43.8, but the increased Tory support has come at the Bloc's expense. The shift shows Quebec voters are eyeing a federalist alternative other than the Liberals.

The poll will be a dispiriting blow to the Liberals, who have to rally their troops for the final push to the Jan. 23 vote.

But it will also hold dangers for the Tories, making them a target in a way they've escaped so far.

Does anyone seriously believe that we're at 20% in Quebec? Anyone? Watch for that result to get played up, with the suggestion that it would split the federalist vote in Quebec so badly that the Bloc would win all 75 seats. Not to keep Quebec voters in line, but to frighten Ontario voters away from the Tories and NDP with fears of a Tory-Bloc coalition.

If EKOS is really the Liberal-friendly pollster we think it is, this poll could be a spur to Ontario voters to get back on side.

Source: Toronto Star


Anonymous said...

On the contrary, it could help convince Ontarians that the Conservatives are a truly national party that can govern for all parts of the country

Reg said...

The math would say yes. SES shows 15% today up 3%. That would indicate last night's polling would be in the 18-20% range needed to average with the 11-12% from Dec. 30. Federalists in Quebec are throwing in the towel on the Libs and moving to the CPC.