Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Poll Panic (Or Pride)

People are panicking (or crowing) about SES and EKOS polls showing about a 7-point lead for the Tories, and crowing (or panicking) about a Strategic Counsel poll showing an 18-point lead.

Before we break out the cyanide (or champagne), I suggest we take heed of the analysis offered by Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker:

Unless there's a couple of other serious polls (including ours - we're always serious) confirming a shift, then there may be some shifts around the margins, but they won't be huge.

I was just going over the diagnostics on our voter panel poll (very likely/certain to vote), the one that was in the CanWest papers today. Here's the responses (from a sample of 8,256) who said they could change their mind before election day:

Very likely - 2%
Somewhat likely - 11%
Not very likely - 35%
Not likely at all - 51%

Only 8% of Tories say they would consider switching. The most likely switchers are...wait for it...Grits at 18%. Dipper switchers are about 15%. I don't see a big rush in this do you?

What you're looking at are a couple of tracking polls. Both are surveying the general population, as opposed to likely voters, and both have small sample sizes. I'm not saying they're wrong, just limited. They are what they are.

The good news (or bad news) is that there are only five days left in the campaign. Media reports showing enthusiastic crowds at Tory rallies and big-name endorsements in Quebec, scandals and leadership revolt plotting in the Grit ranks have been flooding the news for the past week. There will be some ups and downs in poll numbers--there always will be, from day to day--but five days is not enough time to sink (or raise) the ship.

We cannot be complacent (or resigned) in the face of what appears to be strong victory (or crushing defeat). In the next few days, we must all put in our best efforts on the campaign to seal the deal (or limit the damage).

That is all.

1 comment:

Mrs Sauga said...

I wont be complacent or resigned but I wish some people were more loyal.

Today I heard an Ontario PC vice president named Dianne Lawson signed the Carol Jamieson petition to dump Stephen Harper.

That is an insult and an outrage. What is she trying to do, lose us the election?