Wednesday, December 14, 2005

Changing Circumstances

Even if you think the recent Strategic Counsel poll showing the Grits and Tories in a dead heat is too good to be true, the numbers about change might not be:

The national numbers from polling conducted between Dec. 10 and 12 found (change from Nov. 28 pre-election poll in brackets):

Change now: 58 per cent (+4)
Now's not the time: 33 per cent (-6)
DK/NA/NR: 9 per cent (+2)
Woolstencroft said he was surprised by some of the regional differences (change from the Nov. 28 pre-election poll in brackets):

Quebec: 64-30 in favour of change (+5)
Rest of Canada: 56-34 in favour of change (+4)
Ontario: 51-38 in favour of change (+2)
Prairies: 70-20 in favour of change (+4)
B.C.: 55-37 in favour of change (+4)

Governments are considered to be in serious trouble when at least 60 per cent of the electorate decides it's time for a change -- although it sometimes depends on their choice of alternatives.

Ignore that last little Bell Globemedia editorial swipe and think of how badly the Liberal campaign has had to be going to reach that point.

In a time when the dollar is strong, unemployment rates are closing in on full employment and the government is running up huge surpluses, the Liberals should have been able to brush off Adscam and all the other little scandals that plague governments as a matter of course.

The mood for change is just shy of the tipping point when it becomes irreversible and dooms the incumbent government at at time when the economy is doing quite well.

Paul Martin has managed to turn gold into lead, single-handedly.

Imagine how much worse it would be for him if we were in the middle of a recession.

Source: CTV

No comments: